Methodology
How we price things
Every number on this site is an estimate built from evidence we can point at. This page says what that evidence is, how much weight each kind carries, and — the part most pricing sites skip — when we don’t have enough of it to answer.
The short version
We gather what comparable items are selling for, throw out the ones that are too old or too far from the pack, adjust for the specific condition and accessories of the item in front of you, and report the middle of what’s left. Then we tell you how confident that number is, based on how much evidence went into it and how good that evidence was.
Where the evidence comes from
Not all evidence is equal. A completed sale tells you what someone actually paid; an active listing only tells you what a seller hopes for. We rank sources by how much they deserve to be believed, and reach for weaker ones only when the stronger ones are thin.
| Source | Tier | Weight | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
Verified Sales Completed transactions confirmed by both parties on True Market Prices. | 1 | 100% | Not connected yet |
Marketplace sold records Externally reported completed sales (e.g. eBay sold listings). | 2 | 85% | Not connected yet |
Reverb marketplace prices Live listing prices from Reverb, the specialist used-instrument marketplace. | 3 | 70% | Live |
Certified trade-in index Certified trade-in and buyback program quotes. | 3 | 70% | Not connected yet |
Current retail pricing New-unit retail prices used as a ceiling reference. | 4 | 50% | Not connected yet |
Active asking prices Unconfirmed asking prices — context only, never treated as sales. | 5 | 30% | Live |
Tier 1 is the most credible. “Not connected yet” means exactly that — no data of that kind is reaching the estimate today, and nothing is standing in for it.
What we do to the raw numbers
- Filter. Sales older than the recency window are dropped, because a price from a year ago is not the price today. So are statistical outliers — one broken unit sold for parts should not drag the median down for everyone.
- Rank by source. The strongest evidence available is used first. Weaker tiers are pulled in only when the stronger ones don’t give us enough to work with, and the confidence score reflects that.
- Take the median, not the average. One absurd price should not move the answer, and with a median it can’t.
- Adjust for condition. Each answer in the condition report moves the value by a set percentage. A failure on something critical — won’t power on, activation-locked — caps the item at parts value rather than shaving a percentage off.
- Adjust for what’s included. Missing accessories subtract a fixed amount; original packaging adds one. These are dollar figures, not percentages, because a missing charger costs the same whatever the item is worth.
What the confidence meter measures
Two things: how much evidence went into the estimate, and how good it was. Forty confirmed sales produce a confident number. Three active listings from one marketplace do not, and the meter will say so rather than let a thin answer look like a certain one.
When we say we don’t know
Below a minimum number of usable comparables, we stop giving a price and say so instead. That is deliberate, and it is the part of this product we would least like to lose. A confident-looking number built from two data points is worse than no number, because you would act on it.
Where we can, we’ll show a researched estimate from the open web alongside the gap — clearly labelled as an estimate. It never enters the evidence pool and never moves the Fair Market Price.
The limits, plainly
- This is an estimate, not an appraisal. It has no standing for insurance, tax, or legal purposes.
- It is not a guarantee of what you will pay or receive. What an item actually sells for depends on timing, condition we can’t see, and who else wants it.
- Prices from other marketplaces are captured when we look, and can change or disappear afterwards.
- We are a venue. We are not a party to any transaction between a buyer and a seller here, and we do not verify items ourselves.